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David Hale, Editor
Introduction; The US Recovery; Will the Gold Rally Continue?
Western Hemisphere Economies, Ch 1; Reserve Currencies, Ch 13
David Hale is a Chicago-based global economist whose clients include asset
management companies in North America, Europe, Asia, and Africa. He is the founding
chairman of David Hale Global Economics. Mr. Hale serves as the Global Economic
Advisor to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. He formerly worked as chief
economist for Kemper Financial Services from 1977 to 1995 and Zurich Financial
Services, which he joined as chief economist when it purchased Kemper in 1995. He
advised the group's fund management and insurance operations on the economic outlook and a wide range of public policy issues until 2002, when he founded David
Hale Global Economics. Mr. Hale holds a BS degree in international economic affairs
from the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and an MS degree in
economics from the London School of Economics. In September 1990, the New York
chapter of the National Association of Business Economists conferred upon Mr. Hale
the William F. Butler Award.
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Lyric Hughes Hale, Editor
Preface
Lyric Hughes Hale is a writer and contributor to a range of publications, including the Financial Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Current History, and
Institutional Investor. "China Takes Off", published in Foreign Affairs in 2003 and
written jointly with her husband David Hale, is one of the most oft-cited surveys of
China's economic ascendency. Ms. Hale studied Japanese at Northwestern University
and graduated from the University of Chicago with a degree in Near Eastern Languages
and Civilizations. She has lived and studied in Europe, Asia, and the Middle
East. She first went to China in 1979, and has been a frequent visitor since. As a lifelong
Asianist, her scholarly interests include Chinese monetary policy during the
1930s, Iranian affairs, and the role of the media in developing countries, especially
China. Ms. Hale is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, the
Australian-American Leadership Dialogue, and is a long-time director of the Japan
America Society of Chicago. She founded Women in International Trade (WIT), and
was the first female president in the sixty-year history of the International Trade Club
of Chicago. She serves on the advisory board of Pasfarda, which encourages and supports
cultural exchanges between the US and Iran.
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Joshua Mendelsohn
The Canadian Economy: Prospects and Challenges
Western Hemisphere Economies, Ch. 2
Joshua Mendelsohn is a Toronto-based independent economic advisor. His
areas of focus include international economics, the US and Canadian economies,
monetary policy, and financial markets. Before taking on his current role, Mr. Mendelsohn
was the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist for the Canadian Imperial
Bank of Commerce (CIBC) for nearly ten years and was a senior member of the
bank's economics group for over twenty years. Prior to joining CIBC, Mr. Mendelsohn
was an economist with the C. D. Howe Research Institute. Mr. Mendelsohn
has provided advice to senior federal and provincial government officials, as well as
the private sector, and has testified before parliamentary committees on both domestic
and international issues. Between 1997 and 2002 Mr. Mendelsohn also chaired the
Economic Policy Committee of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Mr. Mendelsohn
has authored articles on domestic and international economic developments
and issues and has been interviewed and quoted in such publications as the Wall Street
Journal, Business Week, The Economist magazine and Time magazine.
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Timothy Heyman
Mexico's Interminable Transition-2011 and Beyond
Western Hemisphere Economies, Ch. 3
Timothy Heyman is President of Heyman y Asociados, one of Mexico's
leading independent institutional asset managers. Prior to founding Heyman y Asociados,
he was President of ING Baring Grupo Financiero (México), S. A. de C. V.,
and Baring, S. A. de C. V., Casa de Bolsa, the first foreign brokerage in Mexico. He
was named Emerging Markets Allstar by Global Finance, and for three successive
years he was awarded first place for Mexican research by Institutional Investor. He is
currently a member of the Listing and Index Committees of the Mexican Stock Exchange,
and he is a board member of several financial and industrial companies in
Mexico. A Finance Professor since 1982 at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de
México, Timothy is the author of eight best-selling books on Mexican investments,
the latest being Inversión en la Globalización and Mexico for the Global Investor. He is also Treasurer of the Mexican Literary Foundation, and member of the
Board of Trustees of the Mexican Council for Foreign Relations. He has a BA from
Oxford and an MS in Management from MIT.
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Pedro Pablo Kuczynski
Is Latin America Changing?
Western Hemisphere Economies, Ch. 4
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski began his career at the World Bank in 1961. In the private
sector he was Chairman of First Boston International from 1982 to 1992, and he ran
three private equity funds specializing in Latin America from 1992 to 2001. In the
1970s he ran an international mining company and was a partner of investment bank
Kuhn Loeb International. He was Prime Minister of Perú from 2005 to 2006 after
having served as Finance Minister since 2001. He was previously Minister of Energy
and Mines and Deputy Director of the Central Reserve Bank. Since 2007 he has been
a Senior Advisor and Partner of the Rohatyn Group, a firm specializing in emerging
market investments. He is also Chairman of AMG, a company in special metals related
to solar energy, and of Agualimpia, an organization in Perú that helps poor
towns and villages set up their water systems.
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Anatole Kaletsky
The World Bets on Europe, but the United States
Will Probably Win
Europe, Ch. 5
Anatole Kaletsky is Chief Economist and founding partner of GaveKal Research, Hong Kong. His book Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath
of Crisis was published in June 2010. Anatole is best known as an economic
commentator for The Times of London and, prior to that, on the Financial Times. In
1999, after twenty years as one of the world's leading economic journalists, Anatole
joined Charles Gave and Louis-Vincent Gave to launch GaveKal. Anatole has been an
adviser to multinational companies and financial institutions in Eu rope, America,
and Asia, as well as a sought-after public speaker. His insights on macro-economic
and financial trends, central bank dynamics, and political developments are respected
by investors worldwide. Anatole still writes a weekly column for The Times of London.
Anatole is married and has three children. He speaks French, English, and Russian
and lives in London.
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Louis-Vincent Gave
Asia's Paradigm Shift
Asia, Ch. 6
After receiving his bachelor's degree from Duke University and studying
Mandarin at Nanjing University, Louis-Vincent Gave joined the French Army where
he served as a second lieutenant in a mountain infantry battalion. After a couple of
years, he left the army and joined Paribas Capital Markets where he worked as a financial
analyst first in Paris, then in Hong Kong. Mr. Gave left Paribas in 1999 to launch
GaveKal Research with Charles Gave and Anatole Kaletsky in London. In 2002, he
left the London office and returned to Hong Kong. Mr. Gave contributes frequently
to GaveKal research and was the primary author of Our Brave New World and The End
Is Not Nigh. He is the CEO of GaveKal and Marshall Wace GaveKal.
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Robert Madsen
Japan: Return to Normal
Asia, Ch. 7
Robert Madsen is Senior Advisor and Economist at Asia Alternatives, a
fund of funds specializing in alternative investments. He is a member of the Executive
Council at Unison Capital, one of Japan's premier private equity groups. He is
also a Senior Fellow at MIT's Center for International Studies, where he works on
East Asian and global politics and economics. For over a decade he has written the
Economist Intelligence Unit's (EIU) Japan Country Reports and contributed occasionally
to that company's analysis of China and broader East Asia. Dr. Madsen consults
regularly for a range of corporations and government agencies. Before joining
MIT, he was a Fellow at Stanford University's Asia-Pacific Research Center, an Asia
Strategist at Soros Private Funds Management, and an advisor to the Robert M. Bass
Group on its investments in Japanese real estate. Dr. Madsen earned a master's degree
and a doctorate from Oxford University. Dr. Madsen also holds a JD from Stanford
Law School and is a member of the California State Bar.
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Richard Katz
Japan: The Interregnum Goes On
Asia, Ch. 8
Richard Katz is Editor of The Oriental Economist Report, a monthly newsletter on Japan, as well as the semi-weekly TOE Alert e-mail service on Japan. He is also
a special correspondent at Shukan Toyo Keizai, a leading Japanese business weekly. Mr.
Katz is the author of two books on Japan: Japan: The System That Soured—The Rise
and Fall of the Japanese Economic Miracle (1998) and Japanese Phoenix: The Long Road to
Economic Revival (2002). He regularly writes articles and op-eds for major magazines
and newspapers, has testified before congressional committees, and did a stint as Adjunct
Professor of Economics at the New York University Stern School of Business.
Mr. Katz received his MA in Economics from New York University in 1996.
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Keith Jefferis
Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2010-2011
Southern Hemisphere Economies, Ch. 9
Keith Jefferis is a macroeconomist and financial sector specialist. He is Managing Director of Econsult Botswana (Pty) Ltd. Previous appointments include: Senior
Lecturer in Economics (University of Botswana, 1989– 1996); Deputy Director,
Research Department, Bank of Botswana (1996– 1998); Senior Research Fellow, Botswana
Institute for Development Policy Analysis (1996– 1997); Deputy Governor,
Bank of Botswana (1999– 2005), on appointment by then President of Botswana,
H. E. Festus Mogae. He has a PhD from the Open University (United Kingdom), an
MS in Economics from the University of London, and a BS in Economics with Statistics
from Bristol University. He is originally from the United Kingdom and started
his professional career as a Fellow of the Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
working as an economist in Swaziland. He has lived in Botswana since 1989.
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Iraj Abedian
South Africa After 2010
Southern Hemisphere Economies, Ch. 10
Iraj Abedian is the founder and Chief Executive of Pan-African Capital
Holdings (Pty) Ltd., established in 2005. He was Professor of Economics at the University
of Cape Town in the 1990s. From September to December 1999, Dr. Abedian
was based at the IMF in Washington, DC, working on issues related to fiscal vulnerability
assessment. In January 2000 he joined the Standard Bank Group at their head
office in Johannesburg as Group Chief Economist, and was a member of the Standard
Bank Group executive committee. He received his PhD in Economics from Simon
Fraser University in Canada. He has written numerous articles and co-authored several
books, including: Economic Growth in South Africa (1992); Transformation in Action:
Bud geting for Health Service Delivery (1998); Economics of Tobacco Control: Towards
an Optimal Policy Mix (1998); Economic Globalization and Fiscal Policy (1998).
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Saul Eslake
It Didn't Have to Be That Bad - The Counterexample
of Australia
Southern Hemisphere Economies, Ch. 11
Saul Eslake joined the Grattan Institute, a non-aligned policy "think tank" affiliated with the University of Melbourne, in August 2009 as Director of its Productivity
Growth program. He is also a part-time advisor to Pricewater houseCoopers
Australia and Principal of Corinna Economic Advisory. He was previously Chief
Economist at the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, one of Australia's four
major commercial banks. He was a member of the Foreign Affairs and Trade Policy
Advisory Councils under the government of former Prime Minister John Howard,
and is a member of the National Housing Supply Council and the Australian Statistics
Advisory Council under the government of Prime Minister Julia Gillard. He is
also a non-executive director of Hydro Tasmania and of the Australian Business Arts
Foundation.
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John Greenwood
The Future of the US Dollar as a Reserve Currency
Reserve Currencies, Ch. 12
John Greenwood is Chief Economist of Invesco, an international asset management company. A graduate of Edinburgh University, he did economic research at
Tokyo University and was a visiting research fellow at the Bank of Japan (1970– 1974).
In 1974 he became Chief Economist with GT Management, based initially in Hong
Kong and later in San Francisco. As Editor of Asian Monetary Monitor in 1983, he
proposed a currency board scheme for stabilizing the Hong Kong dollar that is still in
operation today. He was an economic adviser to the Hong Kong government (1992–
1993) and has been a member of the Committee on Currency Board Operations of the
Hong Kong Monetary Authority since 1998. He is also a member of the Shadow
Monetary Policy Committee in England.
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Albert Bressand
In the Shadow of Peak Oil, Peak Carbon, Iraqi Nationalism,
and Paper Barrels: The Oil Markets of the 2010s
The Geopolitics of Energy, Ch. 14
Albert Bressand is the Aristotle Onassis Professor of Practice in International and Public Affairs at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs
(SIPA) and Executive Director of Columbia University's Center for Energy, Marine
Transportation and Public Policy (CEMTPP). Dr. Bressand formerly headed the
Global Business Environment department in Royal Dutch Shell's global headquarters
in London from 2003 to 2006. From 2006 to 2009, Dr. Bressand was Special Adviser
to Andris Piebalgs, the EU Energy Commissioner in Brussels. Previously, he was
Managing Director and cofounder of Promethée, a Paris-based think tank specializing
in the emerging global networked economy. Dr. Bressand also served as Economic
Advisor to the Minister of Foreign Affairs of France and held key positions
with the French Institute for International Relations and the World Bank. He has
published in Foreign Affairs, International Affairs, Futuribles, Politique Internationale,
Revue d'Economie Financiére, Le Monde, and more. His most recent book is titled The
Shell Global Scenarios to 2025.
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Narimon Safavi
In the Aftermath of Iran's Latest Revolution
The Geopolitics of Energy, Ch. 15
Narimon Safavi is a Chicago-based entrepreneur who is also a frequent contributor to NPR Chicago's Worldview program as an Iran analyst. Born in Tehran to an Azari-Iranian family, Narimon studied chemistry and philosophy at Illinois State
University, and currently serves on the boards of the Washington DC- based National
Iranian-American Council (the largest grassroots advocacy organization of Iranian-Americans) and the Pasfarda Arts & Cultural Exchange, whose mission is to build
cultural bridges and foster dialogue between the U.S. and Iran. Previously, Narimon
was a partner in ethical diamond mining projects in Africa and served on the boards
or councils of the Latino Cultural Center of Chicago, Harris School of Public Policy
Studies at the University of Chicago, and Chicago Public Media. Narimon regularly
appears on Persian, Spanish, and English language programs on NPR, PBS, BBC,
Telecinco, and other media outlets. Narimon speaks on a wide range of topics beyond
Iranian affairs, including private sector social responsibility, cultural commentary and
art criticism, especially film. Narimon is fluent in Persian and English, and proficient
in Turkish and Spanish.
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Brian Fisher
Climate Change: Feasible Policy and Future Carbon
Markets
The Geopolitics of Energy, Ch. 16
Brian Fisher is one of Australia's most respected advisers on climate change, emissions trading, and the economic impact of current and future climate and energy policies. He is a well-known commentator on Australian agricultural, minerals, and
energy commodities. He previously held the position of Executive Director of the
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE). He took a senior position in the Federal Department of Primary Industries and Energy before
returning to ABARE as Executive Director in 1995. Dr. Fisher was previously Professor
of Agricultural Economics at the University of Sydney and became Dean of the
Faculty of Agriculture at the university in 1987. He was appointed Adjunct Professor
of Sustainable Resources Development in 2003. He served as economic adviser
to Australia's negotiating team at the third Conference of the Parties in Kyoto.
He also fulfilled this role at the fourth, fifth, and sixth Conferences of the Parties of
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and
was engaged as one of the experts completing the IPCC's Third and Fourth Assessment
Reports. Dr. Fisher has published more than 260 papers and monographs.
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Timothy Congdon
Were Banks Bust in 2009? And Did They Really Need Much
More Capital?
Crisis and Reform, Ch. 17
Tim Congdon is one of the world's leading monetary analysts. After starting
his career as a journalist for the Times of London, he became an economist in London
in 1976. He founded the economic research consultancy Lombard Street Research
in 1989 after correctly warning that the excessive money growth during the Lawson
chancellorship would lead to double-digit inflation. Between 1992 and 1997 he was a
member of the Treasury Panel that advised the British government in a successful
period for economic policymaking. His book titled Keynes, the Keynesians and Monetarism
was published in September 2007. International Monetary Research Ltd. is his
latest venture.
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Andrew Sheng
The Tobin Tax: Creating a Global Fiscal System to Fund Global
Public Goods
Crisis and Reform, Ch. 18
Andrew Sheng is the author of From Asian to Global Financial Crisis (2009)
and former Chairman of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. Dr.
Sheng is the third holder of the prestigious Tun Ismail Ali Chair at the Faculty of
Economics and Administration at the University of Malaya, and is also an Adjunct
Professor at the Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University,
Beijing. From October 1998 to September 2005, Dr. Sheng was the Chairman of
the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. He has published widely on
monetary and fi nancial issues. In 1998, he co-chaired the Working Party on Transparency
and Accountability, one of the three Working Parties formed under the Group
of Twenty-two Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors. He was the Deputy
Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority from 1993 to 1998, responsible
for the Reserves Management and External Affairs Departments. Since October 2003, he has been the Convenor
of the International Council of Advisers to the China Banking Regulatory Commission.
He is a member of the Malaysian National Economic Advisory Council.
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Jack Mintz
Fiscal Imbalances, Economic Growth, and Tax Policy:
Plucking More Feathers from the Golden Goose
Crisis and Reform, Ch. 19
Jack M. Mintz was appointed the Palmer Chair in Public Policy at the University
of Calgary in January 2008.
He serves as an Associate Editor of International Tax and Public Finance and
Canadian Tax Journal, and is a research fellow of CESifo in Munich, Germany, and the
Centre for Business Taxation Institute at Oxford University. He is a regular contributor
to Canadian Business and the National Post. He was appointed by the Federal Minister
of Finance to the Economic Advisory Council to advise on economic planning.
Dr. Mintz held the position of Professor of Business Economics at the Rotman School
of Business from 1989 to 2007. Prior positions include: President and CEO of the C. D.
Howe Institute from 1999 to 2006; Clifford Clark Visiting Economist at the Department
of Finance in Ottawa; Chair of the federal government's Technical Committee on
Business Taxation in 1996 and 1997; and Associate Dean (Academic) of the Faculty of
Management at the University of Toronto from 1993 to 1995. He recently chaired the
Alberta Financial and Investment Policy Advisory Commission reporting to the Alberta
Minister of Finance. In 2002, Dr. Mintz's book Most Favored Nation: A Framework
for Smart Economic Policy won the Purvis Prize for best book in economic policy.
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Michael Lewis
Dodd-Frank Financial Reforms Have a Broad Scope,
and Will Likely Have a Modest Impact
Crisis and Reform, Ch. 20
Michael T. Lewis founded Free Market Inc. (FMI) in 1982. He earned a BS
from MIT and an MA from UCLA in Economics. Before founding FMI, Mr. Lewis
was an economist at Data Resources, Inc., and Atlantic Richfi eld Co. He was Chief
Economist from 1978 to 1982 at Stein Roe & Farnham.
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Carole Basri
The Future of Corporate Compliance
Crisis and Reform, Ch. 21
Carole Basri is senior vice president of Balint, Brown & Basri, which provides temporary legal staff in New York City. She is also an Adjunct Professor at the
University of Pennsylvania Law School, President of the Corporate Lawyering Association,
and President of the Corporate Lawyering Group LLC. She has written four
legal treatises: Corporate Compliance Practice Guide, eDiscovery for Corporate Counsel,
and Corporate Legal Departments and International Corporate Practice.
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Thierry Malleret
The Human Side of Investment Decision-Making
Neuroeconomics, Ch. 22
Thierry Malleret is Senior Partner, Head of Research and Networks at IJ
Partners. Prior to that, he was managing partner of Rainbow Insight, an advisory
boutique that provided tailor-made intelligence to global chief executives and ultrahigh-net-worth individuals. Until March 2007, Thierry headed the Global Risk Network
at the World Economic Forum, a network that brings together top-end opinion
and policymakers, CEOs and academics to look at how global issues affect business
and society in the short-medium and long-term. Thierry has organized Davos and
spoken at global, industry and regional events for several consecutive years. Prior to
that, he worked in investment banking (as a Chief Economist and Strategist of a major
Rus sian investment bank), think tanks and academia (both in New York and Oxford)
and in government (with a three-year spell in the Prime Minister's office in
Paris).Thierry has written several business and academic books, and has also published
four novels. He was educated at the Sorbonne and Ecole des Hautes Etudes en
Sciences Sociales in Paris and St. Antony's College at Oxford. He holds a Ph.D. in
Economics.
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Mark Roeder
The Diminishing Returns of the Information Age
Neuroeconomics, Ch. 23
Mark Roeder is an author and corporate communications executive with
extensive international experience. He was Global Head of Advertising for UBS
Bank; Head of Corporate Brand for Zurich Financial Services; and Head of Corporate
Communications for Westpac Financial Services. He also founded his own marketing
company. His upcoming book, The Big Mo (to be published in 2011), focuses
on the increasing influence of large-scale momentum on our world.